VICTORIA REDSHAW on the how and why of trend forecasting

When I tell people that I’m a trend forecaster, they often nod knowingly and then ask me where I get my ideas from, which tells me their nod was actually not very ‘knowing’ after all. So I thought it would be interesting to lift the veil of mystery and share with you the process we use at Scarlet Opus to predict design trends.

Redshaw: Forecasts are based on solid research

Trend forecasting is a powerful tool that provides a reliable view of future design trends and allows you to lead with confidence knowing your creative decisions are informed decisions. There are some common misconceptions about how trend forecasters actually forecast design trends for the interiors market.

Allow me to dispel a couple of myths right now.

No, I don’t have a crystal ball! Neither do I wait to see what appears on the catwalks of European fashion houses and simply translate the major themes into interiors themes. Trend forecasting is actually much more scientific in its methodology than most people imagine. 

It is a discipline that involves skills from the worlds of both design and social science.

Before we begin a new seasons forecast, we always review our last forecast. This is because in the interiors sector, trends tend to evolve gradually over time, connecting one season to the next. Because of this, all trends can be tracked and this ‘reviewing stage’ gives us our starting point for the new seasons forecast.

Next we research future events planned to take place over the next two to three years. This is the bit that causes people to mention crystal balls but it is really a matter of intense, thorough research from reliable sources. It is possible to get access to a huge amount of information regarding all sorts of major future events that are scheduled to take place. We research sectors including environment issues, politics, science and technology, sports, TV and film, architectural projects, transport, major world events and anniversaries and global gallery and museum exhibitions.

Issues and events planned to take place around the world such as these have an affect on the mood in society, our changing values, priorities and finally, they have an eventual influence on the products and styles people will want to have in their homes and expect from hotels and retail environments in the future.

These global events and issues may also inspire influential designers whose work will in turn influence other designers, creating further desire and driving demand.

Into the mix we add information on major current issues, along with anything significant and influential that has occurred that we could not have foreseen, for instance, an environmental disaster.

Finally, we analyse all of this information to identify common themes, and these groupings form the foundation of our trends. Then we can begin the creative process of translating this information into a forecast of the future wants, needs and desires of consumers and produce a design forecast that identifies the interior schemes, products, colours, patterns, shapes and materials that will match and satisfy consumers desires.

With our Autumn/Winter 2011/12 forecasting research underway, my job continues to fascinate me and I am privileged that our forecasts help to inform and inspire the creative work of interior designers and product designers, manufacturers and retailers around the world.

Victoria Redshaw is the MD of Scarlet Opus, a company dedicated to providing trend forecasting, interior and design services, and business development services to the interiors sector. For more information, see www.scarletopus.com.